LNG

Venezuela enters 2026 amid heightened uncertainty following the detention of the country's president by the United States and the subsequent announcement by the supreme court that Delcy Rodríguez has assumed the role of Acting President. These developments have placed renewed focus on the importance of institutional continuity and stability at a moment when Venezuela's economic and energy future hangs in the balance.

For the African Energy Chamber (AEC), stability remains the single most critical requirement for development. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, a resource base with the potential to transform the country's economic trajectory, rebuild infrastructure and restore energy security. Realizing this potential, however, will depend on predictable governance, responsible resource management and the creation of mutually beneficial contractual frameworks that encourage long-term investment. At this critical juncture, the AEC calls on the energy industry and the international community to provide maximum support to Acting President Rodríguez, encouraging unity, institutional continuity and a nationally driven development agenda.

“This is the time to continue encouraging everyone to invest in Venezuela. We call on African states and leaders as well as the Global South to give the Acting President and the Venezuelan people support as they determine their future, sovereignty and how they want to proceed,” stated NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, AEC.

The AEC has long-held a strong working relationship with both Acting President Rodríguez and Venezuela at large. For her part, Acting President Rodríguez - who also serves as Oil Minister - has long-supported Africa's right to use its oil resources to better the lives of its people. Under her leadership, the country - through its state-owned PDVSA - has developed strong international ties with Africa. Looking ahead, the Chamber believes that the Global South stands to benefit from continued multilateral, respectful engagement.

Importantly, Venezuela is not isolated from the Global South's energy dialogue. As a founding member of OPEC, Venezuela has spearheaded the inclusion of African countries in the organization, recognizing their role in stabilizing global energy markets. Meanwhile, as an Honorary Member of the African Petroleum Producers' Organization, the country has long recognized the value of South-South cooperation, shared technical expertise and collective approaches to resource development. This relationship underscores Venezuela's alignment with producer nations that view hydrocarbons not as a liability, but as a development tool capable of driving industrialization, energy security and social progress when managed responsibly.

Beyond that, Venezuela continues to lead capacity building programs with African companies and students. The country trains African students, fosters leadership development and opens opportunities for African companies to invest in the country - not only in energy but various other sectors.

For Venezuela, oil remains the backbone of the economy and the most powerful lever available to accelerate recovery. Even after years of decline, hydrocarbons still account for close to 90% of export revenues and more than half of government income, while contributing an estimated 17% to 20% of GDP. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves at approximately 303 billion barrels, representing around 17% of global reserves. At current and projected oil prices, the in-ground notional value of these resources is measured in the tens of trillions of dollars, placing Venezuela among the most strategically significant energy geographies in the world.

Production realities, however, highlight both the scale of the challenge and the opportunity ahead. After collapsing to roughly 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, output has recovered to approximately 900,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day as of early 2026. This remains far below the historical peak of 3.4 million bpd reached in the late 1990s, but it demonstrates that Venezuela's industry is not irreparably damaged. With stable governance, regulatory clarity and sustained investment of around $10 billion per year, production in the country has the potential to reach 2.5 million bpd over the next decade, with a return to peak levels requiring cumulative investment in the range of $80 billion to $100 billion.

The heart of this recovery lies in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt, which covers some 55,000 km² and contains nearly 90% of Venezuela's reserves. Blocks such as Petropiar, Ayacucho and the Zuata Complex anchor current output, though the extra-heavy nature of the crude means that access to dilutants, upgrading capacity and modern technology will be essential. Alongside oil, offshore natural gas presents an important diversification opportunity. Projects such as the Dragon field, estimated to hold more than 4 trillion cubic feet of gas, and the Cocuina-Manakin development near Trinidad offer pathways to monetize gas through regional LNG markets, support power generation and reduce the economy's overreliance on crude exports.

Infrastructure rehabilitation will be equally critical. Venezuela's refining system, with nameplate capacity of around 1.46 million bpd, is operating at just 10% to 20% due to decades of deferred maintenance. Pipelines, many of them more than 50 years old, require billions of dollars in upgrades, while the country's state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. estimates total infrastructure needs of roughly $58 billion to restore functionality across the value chain. These investments have the potential to become employment engines and confidence signals that can rapidly improve domestic economy conditions.

International participation, mutually-beneficial investment terms, transparency and local involvement will be indispensable in this process. Existing involvement by companies such as Chevron, which currently produces around 240,000 to 250,000 bpd through joint ventures, illustrates the catalytic role that experienced operators can play. European firms including Eni, Repsol and Shell, alongside service providers such as SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton, have maintained a presence focused on asset integrity and selective growth under constrained conditions. By evolving into mutually-beneficial contracts, these relationships can form the backbone of a broader re-engagement by the global energy industry.

“Venezuela sits atop extraordinary natural wealth, and the lesson from Africa is clear: when stability is prioritized and the energy sector is allowed to function responsibly, hydrocarbons can drive recovery, unity and long-term development. The industry and the international community must come together at this critical moment,” concluded Ayuk.