A very strong El Niño is set to impact South Africa until February 2027, raising concerns over food security and heatwaves.
The World Meteorological Organization indicates that sea surface temperature anomalies have reached +3.01°C above average. This El Niño event could lead to drier and hotter summers, with below-normal rainfall expected across most of the country during the upcoming seasons.
El Niño’s Threat to South Africa’s Agriculture
The anticipated El Niño conditions are likely to exacerbate heatwave risks and threaten crop yields. Farmers are warned that below-normal rainfall could lead to severe heat stress, particularly affecting rain-fed crops like maize, sunflower, and soybeans. The potential for increased agricultural pests and diseases during these hot conditions adds another layer of risk.
Despite these challenges, South Africa enters the 2026/27 marketing period with a relatively strong maize supply, estimated at about 17.40 million tonnes. This includes approximately 9.4 million tonnes of white maize for human consumption and around 7.91 million tonnes of yellow maize for animal feed. This strong supply may provide a buffer against immediate food price increases.
Projected Weather Patterns and Their Implications
The seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 suggests below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures for South Africa. Similar conditions are expected from November 2026 to January 2027. While these forecasts indicate a high likelihood of drier conditions, not all El Niño events lead to drought, as seen in the 1997/98 event.
Farmers are encouraged to adapt their practices in response to these forecasts. Strategies include prioritizing drought-resistant cultivars and managing livestock according to available grazing capacity. Effective water management and pest control measures are also critical during this period.
Next Steps for Farmers and Stakeholders
- Monitor monthly seasonal forecasts issued by SAWS.
- Implement crop production and water management strategies.
- Adjust planting schedules based on anticipated weather conditions.
- Prepare for potential irrigation restrictions due to low rainfall.
South Africa must brace for the impacts of El Niño on its agriculture and food security.
