Italy faces rising fuel prices as economic tensions mount.
Upon returning from a mission in Algeria, Giorgia Meloni must address immediate economic pressures, particularly concerning fuel costs. Oil prices have dipped below 0 per barrel, yet this decline has not yet reached consumers, with a price increase of approximately 0,25 €/litro expected after the excise cut expires on April 7.
Fuel Price Increases Loom in Italy
With crude oil prices stable, gasoline is projected to rise to ~1,980 €/l and diesel to ~2,265 €/l. A full tank of diesel, 50 liters, would cost about 12,20 € more than currently. The government is cautious, with the Deputy Minister of Economy, Maurizio Leo, downplaying immediate intervention.
The OECD has revised Italy’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 down to +0,4%, from +0,6% in December, indicating a modest growth outlook. Inflation is anticipated to reach 2,4% this year, further complicating the fiscal landscape.
Government’s Cautious Approach to Economic Pressures
Political leaders are navigating these economic challenges carefully. Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani has indicated that if the war continues, the reduction of excise taxes will need to be renewed. Meanwhile, Adolfo Urso, Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy, has announced potential measures to support families and businesses.
Italy’s rising fuel costs are in contrast to other countries, where measures to contain prices are being implemented. Germany is limiting daily price increases, Austria has temporarily cut some fuel taxes, and Poland has reduced VAT and excise duties, promising significant price reductions.
Next Steps for Italy’s Economic Strategy
- Finalize decrees on fuel tax cuts.
- Implement the energy bill plan (over 5 billion for 2026-28).
- Consider adjustments to fiscal incentives and possible reopening of debt restructuring.
- Modify the TUF (Consolidated Finance Act) for listed companies.
Italy is bracing for higher fuel prices amid economic uncertainty.
