Friday, October 22, 2021

DUBAI FUTURES: Nov EFS slips below $4/b with eyes on supply fundamentals next month

The front-month Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps dropped below the $4/b mark midmorning trade in Asia Sept. 30 as market participants eye the OPEC+ meet for cues on supply fundamentals when trade for December-loading barrels flags off.

The November Brent/Dubai EFS was pegged at $3.85/b at 11 am Singapore time (0300 GMT), down 22 cents/b from the Asian close Sept. 29, S&P Global Platts data showed.
The OPEC+ alliance will meet Oct. 4 to discuss the plans on adding more volumes to its earlier agreed upon volumes of 400,000 b/d to market.

However, market participants expect the group to continue as originally planned with slim chances of a higher increase in oil supplies despite the recent rise in oil prices ahead of the winter season, traders said.

“Existing plans shouldn’t change for their monthly increases,” a trader in Singapore said.

Traders eye spot buying activity by Asian refiners next month as purchase appetite in September remained lackluster.

If there will be additional barrels, cuts in official selling prices by Middle East producers and full supplies to term buyers then it may throttle spot demand in Asia when trade commences next month, the trader said.

“Actual spot demand won’t be much of a difference. All producers will [most likely] give full [term supplies] to buyers,” the same trader said.

Meanwhile, intermonth spreads narrowed a tad midmorning compared to close on Sept. 29.

The October/November timespread was pegged at a backwardation of 89 cents/b, down 7 cents/b from the Asian close on Sept. 29, Platts data showed.

The November/December timespread was pegged at 78 cents/b, down 3 cents/b from the previous day.
Source: Platts

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