Tuesday, October 19, 2021

DUBAI FUTURES: Dec EFS, spreads stable; Saudi OSPs key despite OPEC outcome

Front-month Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps for benchmark Dubai crude futures as well as intermonth spreads were near-steady at mid-morning Oct. 5.

The December Brent/Dubai EFS was pegged at $4.36/b, up 5 cents/b from the Asian close on Oct. 4, S&P Global Platts data showed.
The intermonth spreads for benchmark Dubai crude futures also were near steady mid-morning Oct. 4 in Asia as market participants absorb OPEC+ group’s decision to leave output increase unchanged. However, Saudi Aramco’s official selling prices will be the key to stoke demand among Asian refiners, sources said.

At 11 am in Singapore (0400 GMT), the November/December Dubai crude futures spread was pegged at 88 cents/b in backwardation, up 6 cents/b from the Asian close on Oct. 4, Platts data showed.

The December/January spread was pegged at 71 cents/b in backwardation, edging up by 3 cents/b over the same period.

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee agreed to keep to its existing plan and only increase output in November by 400,000 b/d despite calls to add more barrels as demand has recovered faster than expected in some parts of the world.

“Smart move,” a crude oil trader in Singapore said. “Yes I believe it will help spot buying … but all eyes are on Saudi osps … what will they do?”

Focus still remains on Saudi Aramco’s OSPs, which are expected to be cut by 30-50 cents/b, traders said.

A cut in prices and issuance of full supplies by Aramco to term buyers could slow spot market demand similar to what happened in September, sources said.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co has set the November official selling price for its flagship Murban crude oil at $73.41/b, the company said Oct. 4. That was up from $69.73/b for the October OSP.

Differentials to the Murban price for its other crude grades such as Umm Lulu, Das Blend and Upper Zakum were kept unchanged from October at a premium of 5 cents/b, discount of 30 cents/b and discount of 60 cents/b, respectively.
Source: Platts

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