Gabon's real GDP growth is expected to be 3.4 percent in 2019 and 2020. It would be driven by the impetus of the non-oil sector (agriculture, mining and industry) and the gradual diversification of the productive base of the economy. economy, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
In its new report on the African Economic Outlook 2019, entitled "Regional Integration for Africa's Economic Prosperity", the African Development Bank (AfDB) admits Gabon's economy is gradually emerging from an adverse cyclical situation. , marked by the drop in hydrocarbon prices of which it was a major producer in Central Africa and should continue with growth which should be 3.4% in 2019 and 2020 driven by the non-oil sector.
" At the demand level, exports (+ 6.3%) and investment (+ 3.0%) will be the main growth drivers. Inflation is expected to remain low at 2.3% and 2.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, " the AfDB says.
The budget deficit is falling from 6.6% in 2016 to 3.6% in 2017 and then to 0.3% in 2018, as a result of the budgetary consolidation initiated under the EC's Community response. Central African monetary and monetary policy, with falling oil prices. In the opinion of AfDB experts, good budget and cash flow management will be important in order to avoid the recurring problem of the accumulation of external arrears, which would negatively affect the country's solvency. " The decline in oil production, if new fields do not come into production, is also a significant risk factor given the importance of the oil sector , " they warn.
For the AfDB, the success of the continued growth of the Gabonese economy will depend, among other things, on the main challenges facing the country, in particular: the low level of reserves; weak economic activity; weak protection of vulnerable groups. " To meet these challenges and preserve the gains, Gabon must remain aligned with the coordinated efforts of the CEMAC countries and pursue fiscal consolidation, secure priority spending and pursue reforms aimed at improving the business climate and governance in order to stimulate growth and diversification of the economy in partnership with the private sector, "recommends the AfDB.